Cannabis legalization goes up for a vote on November 8th for 5 states. Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, and North Dakota citizens will vote on the legalization and sale for adult use, while South Dakota asks whether possession of cannabis should be legal for adults but wouldn’t establish retail sales. If these measures pass it would mean nearly half of Americans would live in states with legalized cannabis for adult use. Harry Brelsford of the CannaTech Group sits down with Paul Seaborn to chat about election predictions for the cannabis sector.
Video Transcription
Harry Brelsford
Hey everybody, welcome back to the Canna tech podcast. It’s a Friday, so on casual casual Friday, Paul, you’re looking pretty spiffy there in the University of Virginia jacket the have on how you doing?
Paul Seaborn
Doing great. It’s a beautiful fall day here in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Harry Brelsford
There we go, Well, hey, we want to sneak this one in and make it a priority to post up the forthcoming election in the cannabis sector. And we purposefully waited. And I’m glad we did. There’s a lot of shifting sands out there. So what’s what’s the State of the Union? The election.
Paul Seaborn
So I think it’s gonna be a long time before there’s not cannabis on the ballot. In the US and this particular fall election, we’ve got five states that are going for full adult use legalization in some form. But you’re right, Harry, it’s good that we waited because a couple other states were in the running and various legal procedures blocked both Oklahoma and Nebraska from even getting that question put in front of the voters. So we’re left with Maryland, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota. So my description of those I think would be they’re not going to be the biggest cannabis markets in terms of dollars and, and customers. But adding with new markets is always part of the steady progress that we’re seeing. And a couple of them Maryland and Missouri will actually be pretty sizable markets based on the existing medical side and just knowing you know, the population. So it’s still pretty exciting. And, you know, it’s almost to the point where cannabis, it’s kind of like a football team that if they can get to the game and get on the field, they usually win. But the only thing you can do now is try to stop the bus from making it there or disqualify the quarterback, you know, so a lot of legal wranglings to try to keep the voters from getting to say yes.
Harry Brelsford
Yeah. Any any surprise predictions? And let me throw throw one at you that I’ve I don’t track this portion of the industry as well as you do. But I saw some interesting I saw dialogue about South Dakota.
Paul Seaborn
Yeah, well, I think that’s the one actually that deserves a little bit of explanation that it’s a very limited proposal. So it would put them sort of in the position that Virginia is in where they would legalize the substance. So you could possess it up to an ounce, you could grow three plants. And you could give it as a gift to your friend. But they’re not proposing to immediately commercialize and have for profit dispensaries and cultivation and processors. So you know, they’re breaking it into smaller steps like Virginia has done. Whereas the other four would all be moving to some form of actual commerce and licenses. And I’ve seen predictions for Missouri up to maybe a billion dollar market in a few years, because they’re already at 400 million on the medical side. and Maryland is a $600 million market. It’s been around a while it’s one of the earlier medical markets, they just couldn’t get over the hump with the adult use. But this time, the legislature said let’s let the voters decide that they put it on the ballot for the voters to kind of pull the trigger. And I guess I’d be shocked if that if any of these don’t pass but South Dakota might be the most questionable just because it’s not the full meal deal. It’s just more of a baby step.
Harry Brelsford
Yeah. Yeah. And that’s a surprisingly conservative state. I don’t know the Dakota is very, we’re a big country. And I don’t know, the Dakotas that well, but I did pick up some chatter. What happened to Florida, you know, because I’ve been tracking Florida and they tried to 2020. What, what’s going on?
Paul Seaborn
So I think, again, there’s a sense that if it gets on the ballot, if the citizens get a choice, they’re gonna say, yes, so it’s a lot of political wranglings behind the scenes. And I think people try to think politically about, you know, as a governor or as a party in power. When do we want this to happen? And yeah, it seems like they’ve chosen to slow walk it a little bit. That was a little bit of the story in Oklahoma to lots of interests, you know, they’ve got a pretty wild medical marker, and almost 10% of the state has a medical card, and they’re, they’re hitting a billion dollars just on medical, but they had the signatures and the process bogged down and couldn’t quite hit the deadline. And so they’re gonna have to wait till 2024 or some sort of special election. But yeah, I think if you had Florida on the ballot, that would be a massive market that would have the whole country’s interest and because we don’t, I would say Maryland and Missouri are definitely the ones to to focus on from a business opportunity point of view.
Harry Brelsford
Sure. Well, I actually got up early this morning, is you know, I relocated to Austin, Texas, and I wanted to do the early voting instead of the day of fact I’ll be at a tech conference, they have the election. The TV set, it was 7am to 7pm. I go down the street in my county, it’s 8am. So instead of 7am, so I go get coffee, I come back. Paul is the first time I’ve cast a ballot in a ballot box, a machine in many, many years coming from Seattle, and vote by mail.
Paul Seaborn
Yeah, in Colorado, where I lived for many years as well. Now, I’m not a US citizen. So I won’t be voting for any of this. It’s all in the hands of you, and then your audience. But But not only do we have these five states, there are actually lots of local stuff sub initiatives, revising to existing rules. So Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island has various towns are going to decide do they want to bring the industry in and even in, in your home state of Texas these days, there’s a few local areas where they’re at least trying to do something around criminal priority, and yet, it’s a long way from a full market, but at least the word is there, and people are starting to think about it.
Harry Brelsford
Well, I’ll tell you what we’ll end on this is I believe it’s my mom said I’d rather be early than be late. So folks, you’re in early.
Paul Seaborn
Yeah, that’s right. If we get all these markets, all these five that would put 24 states on the map as having legal cannabis for full adult use. So that’s halfway and so yeah, you’re still in the, in the early stages. And yeah, that 50 a state is going to be a long way down the road, I think. Unless the world changes dramatically.
Harry Brelsford
Yeah, I’ll probably be in Texas. All right, Paul, hey, we’re gonna see you at MJ biz calm in about three weeks. That’s a big show. Now, I only do the expo pass. As I recall, you went to lecture last year, will you go to lecture again?
Paul Seaborn
I will. I’m usually the one giving the lecture. So it’s nice to be in the audience sometimes. And and yeah, this is one of the places where I tried to stay on top of developments in the states where there’s all the other states that are already in the in the legal world are changing all the time in terms of regs and insurance. And so yeah, it’s my chance to really get my fingertips on what’s happening. Catch up with a lot of really great people across the country. So yeah, can’t wait like the number one thing of November calendar.
Harry Brelsford
Yeah, me too. Me too. I’m really, I’m going to spend some quality time. In fact, I’ll see you there. Thanks, Paul. Thank you, Harry.
